Analisis peramalan penjualan rokok SKT ( sigaret kretek tangan ) pada PT. djitoe indonesian tobacco coy Surakarta
Muhammad Fauzi - F3506091 - Fak. Ekonomi dan Bisnis
PT. Djitoe Indonesian Tobacco Coy is a company operating in cigarette industry sector. In the attempt of optimizing its production in market demand without resulting in the production cost increase, PT. Djitoe Indonesian Tobacco Coy needs the production forecast in developing the production plan. This research aims (1) to find out the forcast of skt (hand chopped cloves) cigarette demand during March 2009 in PT. Djitoe Indonesian Tobacco Coy and (2) to determine the forecasting method that can minimize the forecast error to help determining the production process in PT. Djitoe Indonesian Tobacco Coy.
In developing the production forecasting, the writer uses three-month Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing with different alphas: α = 0,1, α = 0,5, α = 0,9, and to fund out the forecast error level, the writer uses Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Squared Error.
From the analysis conducted, the writer concludes that: the size of forecast result using three-month single moving average method during March 2009 is 3140 with MAD = 391.61 and MSE = 263691.1. The size of forecast result using Exponential Smoothing method during March 2009 with = 0.1 is 2808.2 with MAD = 308.61 and MSE = 155658, during March 2009 with = 0.5 is 3040.17 with MAD = 316.61 and MSE = 191139, and during March 2009 with = 0.9 is 3096.4 with MAD = 388.61 and MSE = 244901.1. From the result of calculation analysis using both methods it can be concluded that the company should use Exponential Smoothing method with = 0.1 in developing its production forecast because the result of calculation has the smallest Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Squared Error compared with = 0.5, = 0.09. It should also use the three-month single moving average method.
Keywords: Selling forecasting using single moving average and exponential smoothing methods.