Abstrak


THE GEOPOLITICAL RISK INDEX (GPR) AND THE GRAVITY MODEL NEXUS: ANALYSIS ON ASEAN 4 AND VIETNAM


Oleh :
Chaya Edita Anggraeni - F0120042 - Fak. Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Geopolitical risk is an influential indicator of economic market reaction to shocks or volatility. With the new index established by Matteo Iacoviello, a researcher in the Federal Reserve System called Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) issues many research questions including: Does Geopolitical Risk Index gives a significant positive impact on tradeflows? In answering this question this research will analyze the impact of the GPR Index in ASEAN 4 and Vietnam export in quarterly period of 2008:1 to 2023:4 using the gravity model as the analysis method. This research uses secondary panel data from TradeMap, IFS data, IMF data,  Matteo Iacoviello website, and distance.to. Results of this research shows that (1) Gross Domestic Product has a significant positive impact on ASEAN export; (2) Geopolitical Risk Index has a significant positive impact on ASEAN export; (3) Distance has a significant negative impact on ASEAN export; (4) Land Border has a significant positive impact on ASEAN export; and (5) Language has a significant negative impact on ASEAN export.