R. Aditya Yunindra Krisna Arianto. H0817079. Analysis of Factors Affecting
Indonesian Coffee Exports to the United States from 1990-2021. Prof. Dr. Ir.
Darsono, M.Si. Prof. Dr. Ir. Heru Irianto, MM. Faculty of Agriculture, Sebelas Maret
University, Surakarta.
Indonesian coffee is a commodity that has enormous potential to compete in
foreign markets, especially Europe, America, and Asia. In Indonesia, coffee is a
mainstay commodity in the plantation sector. Coffee contributes greatly to the
country's foreign exchange earnings of USD 1.15 billion with an export volume of
437.56 thousand tons in 2022. Coffee in Indonesia is important in meeting the world's
coffee consumption needs, especially in the United States. This is an advantage for
Indonesia to increase its economic growth. The value of Indonesian coffee exports
has always decreased over the years 2017 – 2022 is a problem that needs to be traced
to the root of the problem. Factors that influence Indonesian coffee exports to the
United States in this research include; Indonesian coffee production, United States
coffee consumption, United States GDP, Indonesian coffee export prices to the United
States, and the dollar-rupiah exchange rate.
The basic method in this study uses a comparative causal method with a
quantitative approach. The location in this study was determined deliberately
(purposive). The regions to be studied in this study are Indonesia and the United States.
This study uses secondary data in the form of a time series. Multiple linear regression
analysis was used in this study. Before conducting regression analysis, classical
assumption testing is carried out first, namely normality test, heterogeneous
dispersibility test, multiple co-linearity test, dan autocorrelation test. Statistical tests
are the t test (partial), F test (simultaneous) and R² test. The data obtained is also
subjected to trend analysis to see forecasts for the next year.
This research results in a predicted trend in Indonesian coffee exports to the
United States from 2017 - 2031 to decline by 35.73% and an average of 2.07% per
year. The Production variable has a significant positive effect, the United States GDP
has a significant negative effect, and the Exchange rate has a significant positive
effect. Meanwhile, the United States consumption variables and the price of
Indonesian coffee exports to the United States do not have a significant effect on
coffee exports. Taken together, all the variables used, namely production, United
States coffee consumption, United States GDP, price and exchange rate, have a
significant effect on coffee exports. Suggestions that can be given based on the results
and discussions that have been carried out are that relevant stakeholders can pay more
attention to coffee production because increasing production volume will increase
export volume. Coffee production also needs to improve quality in order to increase
competitiveness in the global market. The government is also expected to be able to
create policies or supervision such as encouraging agricultural intensification in the
coffee commodity and establishing bilateral cooperation to simplify export
regulations so that the need for coffee exports can increase even more than in previous
years.
