The purpose of this study are (1) to describe the prediction of physics final examination score for 11th grade students in odd semester on the model by machine learning based on students' formative test score on the material of Balance and Rotational Dynamics, Elasticity and Hooke's Law, Temperature and Heat, Static Fluid, Dynamic Fluid, and Kinetic Theory of Gases and (2) to describe the most influential material topics to predict of physics final examination score for 11th grade students in odd semester based on the results of formative score using machine learning. This research is a quantitative approach with ex-post facto or causal comparative method. Samples in this study were taken from high schools in Surakarta using cluster sampling technique (sampling area) and obtained sample of 356 students. The data in this study consisted of the main data in the form of students' formative test scores on each material topic and supporting data which were question instruments and grids on physics formative tests. The data collection technique in this study is the documentation study technique. Instrument validation used in this study is by model evaluation. The data obtained were analyzed using inferential analysis with multiple linear regression analysis techniques involving mediator variables using machine learning. The model created with machine learning is able to predict the students’ physics final examination score based on the results of students' formative tests score on each topic of physics material in grade 11th in odd semester. This can be seen from the results of testing the prediction of physics final examination score for 11th grade students in odd semester students with machine learning that through the test results obtained coefficient correlation with a value of 0.7833; mean absolute error of 1.9277 and root mean square error (RMSE) value of 2.739. Based on the topic of physics material taught to grade 11th in odd semester, Elasticity and Hooke's Law provide the greatest influence in predicting final examination score for 11th grade students in odd semester in Surakarta, while the material of Kinetic Theory of Gases provides the least influence.