FORECASTING OF THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN LIBYA USING TIME SERIES STOCHASTIC METHOD FOR LONG-TERM FROM 2011-2022

SALEH, SALAH H. E.

× SALAH H. E. SALEH, Student number: S951208507 FORECASTING OF THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN LIBYA USING TIME SERIES STOCHASTIC METHOD FOR LONG-TERM FROM 2011-2022. Supervisor I: Prof . Muhammad Nizam, S.T, M.T, Ph.D. Supervisor II: Dr. Miftahul Anwar. Thesis: Mechanical Engineering Deparment, Graduate School, Sebelas Maret University. Abstract Forecasting electricity consumption is one of the most important operational issues in order to the facility systems and power sources can be used optimally. Electricity demand forecasting process that will ultimately have an important role in the economic and security of the energy operating system. Looking at the conditions above mentioned, the electrical energy production planning and cost efficiency are needed, in order to provide the maximum benefit for the people and the government. The purposes of this study are: 1) To forecast the electricity for long-term demand from year 2011-2022, based year 2000-2010 datas; 2) To provide mathematical model that can be used as consideration in deciding a particular policy in the field of electricity supply. The result of analysis shows the determine for long-term demand for generated electricity in Libya in term of data from 2000-2010, used forecasting time series; to provide mathematical data that can be used as consideration in deciding a particular policy in the field of electricity supply. The models found in the SPSS analysis is ARIMA and by Eviews found exponential smoothing model. Forecasting long-term needs 2011-2022, based on data 2000-2010 showed an increase by SPSS, average both Production and Generated reach 5.17 %, and Eviews 5.18 %. The increase Consumption reach average 4.26 % and 5.93 %. Then, an increase average of Population by SPSS 1.41 % and by Eviews 1,35%. The accuracy forecasting about 95% and error degree of freedom about 5%. Keywords: Forecasting, Electricity, Demand Long-Term From, Time Series, Stochastic Method

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Penulis Utama	:	SALAH H. E. SALEH
Penulis Tambahan	:	-
NIM / NIP	:	S951208507
Tahun	:	2014
Judul	:	FORECASTING OF THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN LIBYA USING TIME SERIES STOCHASTIC METHOD FOR LONG-TERM FROM 2011-2022
Edisi	:
Imprint	:	Surakarta - Pascasarjana - 2014
Program Studi	:	S-2 Teknik Mesin
Kolasi	:
Sumber	:	UNS-Pascasarjana Teknik Mesin 2014
Kata Kunci	:
Jenis Dokumen	:	Tesis
ISSN	:
ISBN	:
Link DOI / Jurnal	:	-
Status	:	Public
Pembimbing	:	1. Prof . Muhammad Nizam, S.T, M.T, Ph.D 2. Dr. Miftahul Anwar
Penguji	:
Catatan Umum	:
Fakultas	:	Sekolah Pascasarjana

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