Abstrak

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change like drought due to its low adaptive capacity, a higher dependence on rain-fed agriculture, and poor drought mitigation measures. The aims of this research were to analyses the long-term climatic trends, to monitor drought characteristics, to assess people?s perceptions of drought and its mitigation measures, and to recommend better drought mitigation strategies in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. This research is mixed method research. The southern and south-eastern of Ethiopia were purposely selected based on a frequent occurrence of drought. Primary data were collected via mailing of a questionnaire to 19 key informants. Monthly data (1980-2017) were obtained from National Meteorological Agency  (NMA)  of  Ethiopia.  Mann-Kendall  (MK)  Test  coupled  with  Sen?s Slope Estimator and linear regression were used to analyse the trend of climatic data whereas Standardized  Precipitation  Evapotranspiration  Index  (SPEI)  was  used  to  analysis drought  characteristics.  SPEI  of 1-,  3-  and  6-month  timescales  were  calculated  to understand drought frequency, duration and severity. SWOT analysis was conducted to analysis the  strengths,  weaknesses,  opportunities,  and  threats of drought  mitigation measures, and to formulate feasible mitigation strategy while quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM) was performed for comparing feasible alternative strategy. The result showed that annual rainfall trend had non-significant decrease at all station except at Gode. The trends of maximum and minimum annual temperature were insignificantly increasing. The calculated SPEI revealed drought is more frequent and severe from time to time in the study area. The most frequent, severe and prolonged droughts occurred during1999-2017 compared to 1980-1999. The most severe drought happened  in  2016  with  peak  negative  SPEI-3  value  ?4.4  in  Moyale.  The  longest duration of drought was recorded in Kebry Dehar station in 2011, which stayed for 12 continuous months. SPEI of 1-, 3- and 6-month value indicated that drought characteristics  are  changed  when  timescale  is  changed.  Deforestation  and  climate change were the highly responded as the major causes drought followed by poor land and water management while El-Nino was the minor causes. Food insecurity and scarcity, malnutrition, health problem, unemployment, migration, school dropout, hopelessness, stress, conflicts, and lack of shelter were identified impacts of drought on society. Economic impacts such as reduction of income, increment of food price, reduction of milk, crop failures,  loss of livestock, shortage of energy sources, and recreational area problem were reported. Rising temperature, forest degradation, pasture degradation, scarcity of surface water, groundwater decline, and soil erosion were the identified environmental impacts of drought in this area. The mostly adopted drought mitigation measure in this area is emergency water and food supply followed by inter nal migration from drought area, which is reactive approach of drought mitigations. Total weighted score of internal factor and external factor evaluation were 2.38 and 2.39, respectively,  and  this  indicates that  drought  mitigation  measures are weak  and  the advantages of existing opportunities were not well used to minimize effects of threats. There were ten feasible alternative drought management strategies formulated. These ten strategies grouped in to four strategies and analysed using QSPM.   The result of QSPM showed that the sum total of attractiveness score (STAS) of strategy 1, 2, 3, and 4 are 4.68, 4.65, 5.29, and 5.42, respectively. This indicated that strategy 4 is the most attractive followed by strategy 3, 1, and 2, respectively. Therefore, the ten drought management strategies formulated and listed according to their attractiveness are highly recommended in order to minimize causes and risks related to drought.